Faced with the imminent arrival of 2025, some people go with the flow in confusion, while others unconsciously tighten their clothes.

Standing at this special moment of the end of the year and the beginning of the year, people unconsciously raise a question: 'Will the cosmetics industry be better in 2025 and even in the next five years?'?

As an observer and researcher in the beauty industry, 'FBeauty Future Traces' has made some summaries and predictions from both macro and micro perspectives, hoping to inspire you.

The biggest question for 2024 is whether the Chinese cosmetics market will rise or fall?

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of cosmetics from January to November 2024 was 401.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -1.3%, while the total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period increased by 3.5% year-on-year. Throughout the year, cosmetics only showed positive year-on-year growth in January February, March, May, and October, while other months showed negative growth.

For the Chinese cosmetics industry in 2024, a huge question has arisen: why did the growth rate of total retail sales of cosmetics not outperform the market? Has the lipstick effect really failed?

After careful research, FBeauty Future Trace believes that this aspect is related to the data statistics and calculation methods of the National Bureau of Statistics; On the other hand, it is also related to the changes that the Chinese cosmetics industry is undergoing.

Public information shows that the National Bureau of Statistics takes units above the quota as the statistical object. Units above the quota refer to wholesale enterprises (units, individual businesses) with an annual main business income of 20 million yuan or more. The cosmetics industry is a highly competitive industry, and although there are drastic changes in the number of "below quota" products, the quantity is huge. In addition, the calculation method for year-on-year data by the National Bureau of Statistics is based on the year-on-year changes of comparable data in the sample database.

This means that the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics directly reflects the market size and level of competition of enterprises above designated size.

What if the statistical scope is expanded to include as much sample data as possible?

According to the data of online e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, Taobao, Tiktok, JD, Kwai, Pinduoduo, and Video, the future track of FBeauty shows that the online cosmetics transaction volume from January to November 2024 is about 562.296 billion yuan, up 6.84% year on year. However, in offline channels, including department stores, supermarkets, cosmetics stores, pharmacies, and convenience stores, the transaction amount of cosmetics decreased by about 0.9% year-on-year from January to November 2024.

Based on comprehensive data from various online and offline channels, it is estimated that the total transaction volume of the Chinese cosmetics market is expected to have a year-on-year growth rate of around 4% in 2024, without considering price factors.

Combining this data with the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, it is not difficult to draw two conclusions:

1. The overall consumption scale of the Chinese cosmetics market is still growing in 2024.

2. The overall level of competition in the market is increasing, which inevitably leads to an increase in investment but a decline in profits.

So, what will happen to the cosmetics market in 2025 and the next five years?